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2021 白銀價格預測、走勢和5年預測

Silver 2021 Price Predictions and 5-Year Forecast
2021 白銀價格預測、走勢和5年預測

By Jeff Clark, Senior Analyst,
What will the silver price do in 2021? And where is it headed over the next 5 years? 
I’ve compiled silver price predictions from a number of precious metals analysts and consultancies. I also make my own prediction, based on the key factors that in my experience are most likely to influence the silver price both this year and the next five years. 

This will be fun, so let’s jump in!
Surveying the (Silver) Landscape

The table below shows the silver price prediction from various commodity and bank analysts for 2021. Here’s what they think we’ll see this year.


Silver Price Predictions 2021

Most industry analysts predict the silver price will move higher this year, though five project it will remain below $30. 

The average of all these analysts is in the low $32 range. 

But as you can see, that range is quite wide. And that is an important consideration when predicting where the price might go… silver can be very volatile at times, the result of its small market size and that it doesn’t take much cash entering or exiting to have a big impact on the price. As such, the swings—both up and down—can be bigger than what most other assets experience, including gold. This fact has to be taken into account when looking at how high or low the price might go. 

What do I think the silver price will do this year, and over the next five years? To answer that question let’s look at the…

Factors Most Likely to Influence Silver Prices

While there are a number of variables that can impact the silver price, let’s look at those most likely to play out this year and beyond and determine if they’re likely to push the price higher or lower…

Industrial Demand

Roughly half of all silver goes toward a variety of industrial applications (and another third to jewelry). Demand from industrial users usually doesn’t fluctuate all that much, but the next four years is likely to see a substantial increase due to President Biden’s“green” policies. 
That’s because silver is a key component in many green technologies. Since it is most the most conductive of the metals, it is vital to making green technologies what they are. And given that a major focus for Biden is green energy, silver demand from the industrial sector is bound to grow. 

If industrial demand grows as I expect, the silver price is likely to… (increase)

Investment Demand

The factor that has the biggest impact on the silver price at any time is not industrial demand or jewelry demand. It is investment demand. Here’s the evidence… 

This chart, going back to 1960, demonstrates the link between investment demand and prices. The red shaded areas show that selling from investors led to lower or weak price, while the green shaded areas show that rising demand from investors led to rising prices.

Silver Price Investment Demand
The key to this chart is that when investment demand shifts from net selling to net buying, the price has risen (and vice versa). As such…

• As investment demand goes, so goes the silver price.

So are investors buying or selling silver?
This chart from Nick Laird at GoldChartsRUs shows the total physical silver holdings by funds, exchanges, and storage facilities. Look what’s been happening…
GoldChartsRUs的尼克·萊爾德(Nick Laird)的這張圖表顯示了按資金,交易所和存儲設施的實際總白銀持有量。看看發生了什麼...

Total Silver Oz Held Worldwide

Investment demand for physical metal has never been higher! Even when the vaccines came out investment demand continued to surge. Investors clearly want exposure to silver. 

The Silver Institute reported that they fully expect investment demand for bullion to continue to march higher in 2021. 
Silver Institute報告稱,他們完全預計2021年對金條的投資需求將繼續增長。

I can also tell you that demand for silver bullion spiked at Hard Assets Alliance last year, particularly when scares about the virus exploded, along with the stock market crash in March. Volumes went through the roof. They’ve spiked again in January. 

As such, if investment demand—the biggest impact on the price— continues to rise as is projected, the silver price will…(increase)

One thing that could depress the silver price is if the vaccines work and are widely used, pushing the economy back to some sort of normal. While industrial demand won’t subside in that scenario, investment demand could, and thus push the price…(decrease)

Silver would also likely decline if the stock market crashed or we entered a double dip recession.
The Big (Silver) Picture

When looking at the price of silver over the next few years, probably the biggest catalyst is monetary dilution. When the currency is debased, it makes real assets like silver (and gold) more valuable, since they can’t be created with a few computer key strokes. 

And now we have both monetary stimulus and fiscal stimulus. Monetary stimulus usually goes first to the banking system and ends up inflating asset prices. But fiscal stimulus are funds that will be injected directly into the economy and immediately spent. It’s like me giving you $100 and you deposit it in a savings account vs. spending it that day on groceries. 
現在我們既有貨幣刺激措施,也有財政刺激措施。貨幣刺激通常首先進入銀行系統,最終導致資產價格膨脹。但是財政刺激措施是將直接注入經濟並立即支出的資金。就像我給您$ 100,然後將其存入儲蓄帳戶,而不是當天將其用於購買食品雜貨。
You probably don’t need me to say it, but the U.S. doesn’t have trillions of extra cash to spend on fiscal stimulus packages. It already can’t balance a budget. Some claim they’ll “collect” on the backend; as jobs are created and the economic grows, tax revenue will increase. But the debts and deficits are so high now they’re mathematically unpayable. And history shows these actions lead to inflation (higher consumer prices). 
Where will they get the funds for these stimulus programs? They have to create it (digital and otherwise), which will add to the already bloated deficit. 
It only takes a 6th grade education to understand that the more you create of something, the less valuable it becomes. As more and more currency units are created for these massive spending plans, the US dollar will become less and less valuable—and silver (and gold) more valuable. 

Now that the Democrats control all three branches of government, currency printing is sure to continue, and fiscal spending is certain to jump. Both of these things will have a direct impact on the silver price. 
There is no vaccine for the coming monetary crisis. You might even say that they only silver (and gold) don’t rise is if they stop printing—but that won’t happen anytime soon. Austerity is completely off the radar in the world we live in right now. This is a built-in catalyst for higher silver prices. 

Because of this, my most confident prediction is that over the next few years, possibly longer, the silver price is going to…(increase)

My Silver Price Prediction

There are many other potential catalysts that could impact the silver price. Frankly, there are so many possibilities that they’re hard to catalog. 
What I covered here are the unique circumstances the silver market finds itself in right now, and why the upcoming bull market could be bigger than many anticipate. 

Suffice it to say that whatever impacts gold is also likely to impact silver. 

Based on all these factors, here are my predictions for the silver price for both 2021 and five years out. 

Silver Price Predictions Chart
I encourage you to consider that regardless of where the price may end up over the next few years, silver represents a very compelling investment opportunity for the foreseeable future.


Jeff Clark

* 以上僅此作者個人觀點,不應做為投資建議。請務必詢問專業資產顧問再投資*