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商店中有更多黃金的需求嗎? 市場關注葉倫對美元的看法

More selling in store for gold price? Markets eye Yellen's take on U.S. dollar
商店中有更多黃金的需求嗎? 市場關注葉倫對美元的看法

 Anna Golubova  Monday January 18, 2021 11:41
After a selloff towards $1,800 an ounce, gold is up on some bargain-hunting with prices back above $1,830 despite a higher U.S. dollar on Monday.
The increase in market volatility come as markets are closed Monday in recognition of Martin Luther King Jr. Day.
With the U.S. dollar in control of gold's price moves, this week's focus is on the designated new U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's testimony scheduled for Tuesday. Markets are zeroing in on Yellen's comments about the future of the U.S. dollar policy, according to analysts.
在美元控制黃金價格走勢的情況下,本週的焦點是定於週二指定的新任美國財政部長耶倫(Janet Yellen)的證詞。分析師稱,市場對葉倫對美元政策未來的評論趨於零。
"The dollar has been working gradually higher over the weekend and part of this may be to do with the fact that Janet Yellen, Treasury Secretary-in-waiting, is due to testify on Capitol Hill tomorrow. She is expected to say that she does not favor a deliberate weakening of the dollar, preferring instead to see the currency valued by free-market movements. This, in principle, is dollar-supportive in that it is a change of policy, said StoneX head of market analysis for EMEA and Asia regions Rhona O'Connell.
“美元在周末一直在逐漸走高,部分原因可能是美國財政部候任部長珍妮特·耶倫(Janet Yellen)明天將在國會山莊作證。預計她會說,確實歐洲,中東和非洲和亞洲市場分析負責人StoneX證實,從原則上講,這是對美元的支持,因為這是政策的改變,這有利於美元,因為這是政策的改變,這有利於美元的故意貶值。羅納·奧康奈爾地區。

The impact on gold will be determined by how much and in which direction the U.S. dollar moves in response, said Commerzbank analyst Carsten Fritsch.
"The kind of verbal interventions designed to weaken the USD that were a common feature of Trump's presidency are now likely to be a thing of the past," Fritsch said on Monday.
德國商業銀行分析師卡斯滕·弗里奇(Carsten Fritsch)表示,對黃金的影響將取決於美元做出反應的程度和方向。弗里奇(Fritsch)週一表示:“在貶低美元的口頭干愈是川普當選總統的普遍特徵,現在可能已成為過去。”
U.S. dollar strength has been weighing on gold, which tumbled to early-December lows over the weekend, hitting $1,800 an ounce.
On Monday, gold has recovered somewhat, with spot gold last trading at $1,838.20 an ounce, up 0.55% on the day. In the meantime, the U.S. dollar index continued to climb, trading near the highest level since Dec. 21 and on track to test the 91 area.

"Gold price movements in the recent past have been very much a function of the dollar's movements, with the price in euro terms moving more or less horizontally over the past week," said O'Connell. "The fall towards $1,800 came largely during U.S. hours last Friday and then there was a further sharp selloff at the start of Asian hours this morning, before an almost equally rapid recovery on bargain hunting."
奧康奈爾說:“最近的黃金價格走勢很大程度上取決於美元的走勢,而以歐元計算的價格在過去一周中或多或少地水平移動。” “價格下跌至1,800美元主要是在上週五的美國時段內,然後在今早的亞洲時段開始進一步急劇拋售,隨後幾乎同樣迅速地回彈。”
Friday's moves were likely amplified due to the closure of the U.S. markets on Monday, O'Connell noted.
Despite the recovery on Monday, gold is showing some signs of weakness, Fritsch pointed out.
"Friday's price slide meant that gold also closed the second week of trading in the new year down. Higher U.S. bond yields and a firmer U.S. dollar are continuing to weigh on its price," he said. "As expected, gold's price slide in the week before last was largely driven by speculation. According to the CFTC's statistics, net long positions held by speculative financial investors were slashed by a third to 78,200 contracts in the week to 12 January, their lowest level since May 2019."
他說:“週五的價格下跌意味著黃金也將在新年第二個交易日收盤下跌。美國債券收益率的上漲和美元的堅挺繼續對其價格構成壓力。” “正如預期的那樣,黃金價格在前一周的下滑主要是受到投機活動的推動。根據CFTC的統計,投機性金融投資者持有的淨多頭頭寸被削減了三分之一,至78,200張合約,為最低水平。自2019年5月起。”
Pepperstone's head of research Chris Weston highlighted a red flag to keep an eye on in the near-term.
Pepperstone的研究負責人Chris Weston強調了一個危險信號,需要在短期內關注。

"Friday, we saw real U.S. Treasury yields lower by 4bp, but yet the USD rallied, and gold came off – this is a red flag to me. In fact, the way gold is trading today makes me quite concerned that the market feels this part unwind of reflation bets has more to go," Weston said on Monday. "I see this fall as 'bad' real yields decline – where both inflation expectations and nominal Treasury yields move lower together, with nominal Treasury yields falling faster than inflation expectations. Given how frothy and overextended markets have been, this may be the start of a slight unwind, with the USD at the heart of the move."
“星期五,我們看到美國國債的實際收益率下降了4個基點,但是美元卻上漲了,黃金下跌了–這對我來說是一個危險信號。實際上,今天的黃金交易方式使我非常擔心市場對此的擔憂。通縮押注的部分放鬆還有更多,”韋斯頓週一說。 “我認為今年秋天是'不良'實際收益率下降–通脹預期和名義國債收益率一起走低,名義國債收益率下降的速度快於通脹預期。鑑於市場的泡沫和過度膨脹,這可能是開始的稍有放鬆,以美元為核心。”

Live 24 hours gold chart [Kitco Inc.]

Another major event to keep an eye on this week is President-elect Joe Biden's inauguration on Wednesday. "Security in Washington DC and many state capitols has been beefed up due to concerns of violence," said BBH's global head of currency strategy Win Thin.
本週值得關注的另一項重要事件是當選總統喬·拜登就職典禮。 BBH全球貨幣策略負責人Win Thin表示:“由於擔心暴力事件,華盛頓特區和許多州議會大廈的安全得到加強。”

Also, markets are paying close attention to the Bank of Canada meeting on Wednesday as well as the European Central Bank, the Norges Bank, and the Bank of Japan meetings on Thursday.

來源引用: Kitco News




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